What Does Mathematician Richard Charnin have to say about Seth Rich?
What is the probability that in a random group of N individuals, n would die unnaturally in T years given group mortality rate R?
Today on this, the first anniversary of the murder of Seth Rich [widlely believed to be the DNC email leaker who was working with Wikileaks when he was murdered], many people are wondering why there has not been more thorough investigation when the circumstances of his employment and death warrant it.
Before looking at the probability that Seth Rich's untimely death was connected to a larger pattern of death, let's look at the qualifications of the person assessing his death as a part of a larger dataset. Many people know him as the man that exposed the discrepancies between the exit polling data and the outcomes at the polls during the 2016 Presidential Election.
Richard Charnin graduated from Queens College (NY) in 1965 with a BA in Mathematics. He was hired as a numerical control engineer/programmer for Grumman Aerospace Corporation. GAC was a major defense/aerospace manufacturer which built the Lunar Module, Navy fighter jets and commercial aircraft.
He obtained an MS in Applied Mathematics from Adelphi University in 1969 and an MS in Operations Research from Polytechnic Institute of NY in 1973.
According to Richard Charnin on his Mortality Probability Calculator
It’s not just about Seth Rich. Applied Mathematics indicates a virtual 100% probability of a cover-up.
There were n=6 suspicious deaths in T=5 weeks (0.10 years). Mortality rate R=0.0002. Assuming a random group of N individuals, the probability that it was just a coincidence is
500 1 in 900 trillion
1000 1 in 14 trillion
3000 1 in 20 billion
30000 1 in 32000
There were 7 suspicious deaths (assumed to be homicides) in 3 months. The probability is virtually ZERO it is a coincidence given so many suspicious deaths in such a short period of time.
How many DNC voter data admins were there? How many DNC process servers? How many HRC biographers? How many Assange lawyers? How many Wikileaks founders? How many UN officials preparing to testify? How many DNC officials? How many investigative reporters on the Clintons? Are any of these deaths being investigated? Any suspects?
He goes on to use this list for his n calculation.
4/18: John Jones, lawyer who defended Assange, run over by train.
6/22: John Ashe, UN official, barbell fell on neck day before he was going to testify on DNC and Clinton.
6/23: Mike Flynn,48, died day he reported on Clinton Foundation (COD unknown).
7/10: Seth Rich, DNC staffer, shot twice in back. Assange offered $20K reward.
7/25: Joe Montano,47, DNC, heart attack, died day before convention.
8/01: Victor Thorn, author of books exposing Clintons, gunshot wound.
8/02: Shawn Lucas, DNC process server, lethal combination of drugs.
He also suggest these people as possible additions:
Michael Ratner (Wikileaks NY lawyer) died in May 2016 from cancer.
Gavin McFayden (Wikileaks founder) died in Oct 2016 from cancer.
The analysis assumes the 7 deaths were all homicides. If they were a combination of 3 homicides, 2 accidents, 1 suicide and 1 heart attack, we use a weighted mortality rate. This is conservative as the “accidents” and “suicides” were likely homicides. The heart attack was also highly suspicious.
What is the probability that in a random group of N individuals, n would die unnaturally in T years given group mortality rate R? Three (R, n, T) of the 4 parameters are known constants. The only unknown is N, the number of individuals in the study.
There were 7 suspicious deaths in 3 months.
The Poisson distribution function calculates the probability of rare events. The probability of n homicides when E are expected is P = poisson (n,E,false).
Since N is unknown, let’s view a SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS table over a range of N for n=5,6,7,8,9:
Probability of n homicides in a random group of
n 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000
5 0.02% 0.31% 1.41% 3.61%
6 0.00% 0.05% 0.35% 1.20%
7 0.00% 0.01% 0.08% 0.34%
8 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.09%
9 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02%
National Weighted for T=.25 (3 months)
COD………. n Rate……… Rate
Accident.. 2 0.00038 0.00076
Suicide…. 1 0.00012 0.00012
Homicide. 3 0.00005 0.00015
Natural?.. 1 0.00173 0.00173 [heart attack/cancer]
Total…….7 0.00228 0.00039
He goes into more detail on his blog, where all his calculations are shown in detail.
Understanding from a mathematical standpoint the probability that all these people found themselves dead in the time-frame knowing the data real occurances of homicide and death and using the application of Poisson distribution function, Richard Charnin has concluded, "Applied Mathematics indicates a virtual 100% probability of a cover-up."
Of course, the real question is, is anyone going to do anything about it?
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